How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers
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- Create Date：2021-03-28 11:20:11
- Update Date：2025-09-07
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- Author：Tim Harford
- ISBN：1408712245
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Summary
When was the last time you read a grand statement， accompanied by a large number， and wondered whether it could really be true？ Statistics are vital in helping us tell stories - we see them in the papers， on social media， and we hear them used in everyday conversation - and yet we doubt them more than ever。
But numbers - in the right hands - have the power to change the world for the better。 Contrary to popular belief， good statistics are not a trick， although they are a kind of magic。 Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact， they help us see more clearly。 Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer， a microscope for a bacteriologist， or an X-ray for a radiologist。 If we are willing to let them， good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves - both large and small - that we would not be able to see in any other way。
In How to Make the World Add Up， Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less'。 He takes us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation， bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers worthwhile。 Harford's characters range from the art forger who conned the Nazis to the stripper who fell in love with the most powerful congressman in Washington， to famous data detectives such as John Maynard Keynes， Daniel Kahneman and Florence Nightingale。 He reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence， curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism。
Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers - plus one golden rule - this extraordinarily insightful book shows how if we keep our wits about us， thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented， we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up。
But numbers - in the right hands - have the power to change the world for the better。 Contrary to popular belief， good statistics are not a trick， although they are a kind of magic。 Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact， they help us see more clearly。 Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer， a microscope for a bacteriologist， or an X-ray for a radiologist。 If we are willing to let them， good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves - both large and small - that we would not be able to see in any other way。
In How to Make the World Add Up， Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less'。 He takes us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation， bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers worthwhile。 Harford's characters range from the art forger who conned the Nazis to the stripper who fell in love with the most powerful congressman in Washington， to famous data detectives such as John Maynard Keynes， Daniel Kahneman and Florence Nightingale。 He reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence， curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism。
Using ten simple rules for understanding numbers - plus one golden rule - this extraordinarily insightful book shows how if we keep our wits about us， thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented， we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds up。
Reviews
Horia Calborean
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I think this is a must read。 The subject is very interesting。 Why not 5 stars？ I felt that in some chapters the book is lacking in terms of convincing examples， it does not go deep enough。 I wanted more details， more analysis on real examples。
Kyle
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This is a simple， but interesting book， that， if you take its concepts on board， should improve your ability to understand the world。 The author has fun stories that help reinforce the ten rules he gives on understanding the world。 They can be briefly be summed up with "be curious" which means think about what was measured when given data， consider how it makes you feel and take those feelings into account when evaluating the information， and think about how the general statistic and personal ex This is a simple， but interesting book， that， if you take its concepts on board， should improve your ability to understand the world。 The author has fun stories that help reinforce the ten rules he gives on understanding the world。 They can be briefly be summed up with "be curious" which means think about what was measured when given data， consider how it makes you feel and take those feelings into account when evaluating the information， and think about how the general statistic and personal experience can be made consistent （or why they may seem inconsistent）。 These are good things to be reminded of， and Harford does a good job of explaining that these small steps don't require great mathematical sophistication or intellectual reasoning， just stopping and really thinking about what is being presented or said and performing a little bit of a robustness check。 While I would certainly recommend it if this sounds interesting to you， I worry that the type of person who would read this book might already be the type of person who would be aware of and doing the sorts of checks that Harford presents。 If you think that you've got the above down， I certainly couldn't say you need to read the book， but if you'd like a fresh reminder， this will do an excellent job。 。。。more
Alina Belascu
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I am fascinated by the stories inside。。。but now I am a bit scared about the news out there。 I am questioning everything。 Making the world add up feels more daunting now :）。
Malie
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Brilliant， useful， interesting book that you wish you could press into the hands of everyone you know。
Brian
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How to look at data and make sense of the world。 Good advice from one of my favourite popular economics writers。
Jonas Heide
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Harford's 10 commandments form a healthy recipe for constructive skepticism。 The author talks science， knowledge， and numbers in the heart-warming spirit that the truth is out there and this one should be on every library shelf - high-school and up。 Harford's 10 commandments form a healthy recipe for constructive skepticism。 The author talks science， knowledge， and numbers in the heart-warming spirit that the truth is out there and this one should be on every library shelf - high-school and up。 。。。more
Trevor Kenning
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Highly enjoyable。 Especially if， like me， you like the More or Less programme on Radio 4。 Interesting ideas presented in a very accessible way
Michal
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The book title/description is a bit misleading。 At least I expected something a bit else。 I would say the book is about how not to be fooled by statistics。 In overall， all rules are good ones， I agree with all of them， and I wish more people knew them and used them。 But for someone like me， those rules are not that surprising。 Also， the quality of rule explanations vary。 Some examples are from every day life and very well described， but few are hard to follow that I more understand the rule from The book title/description is a bit misleading。 At least I expected something a bit else。 I would say the book is about how not to be fooled by statistics。 In overall， all rules are good ones， I agree with all of them， and I wish more people knew them and used them。 But for someone like me， those rules are not that surprising。 Also， the quality of rule explanations vary。 Some examples are from every day life and very well described， but few are hard to follow that I more understand the rule from quick summary at the beginning of the chapter than from the rest of the chapter。 Yet still worth reading。 。。。more
Lee
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A thought provoking book by the presenter of Radio 4’s More or Less， leading us through the murky world of statistics and their misuses。 Several basic rules are supplied to help us understand the statistics in the context of their usage。 Coincidentally ， I read this book at the same time as the film “The Last Vermeer” was released。 The incident being portrayed in the film also being featured in this book。
Catherine Davies
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Clear and well written，great for getting a better understanding of all the statistics and data we are presented with。
Michelli Collado
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Very well-written and a good distillation of principles data scientists （probably） instinctively know。 This book is also a good antidote to today’s misinformation and polarisation。
Daniel
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If you liked Tim Hartford's BBC podcast you'll love this book。 If you liked Tim Hartford's BBC podcast you'll love this book。 。。。more
Enid
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A must read to help you make sense of the world of misquoted stats and misrepresented figures- companion book to the Radio 4 programme "More or Less "。 A must read to help you make sense of the world of misquoted stats and misrepresented figures- companion book to the Radio 4 programme "More or Less "。 。。。more
Juha
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Interesting read！ I like Tim Hardford way of thinking and telling stories。 Some of the "commandments" were a bit too complex and somewhat artificial， but overall I think the book was full of interesting perspectives。 Worth reading！ Interesting read！ I like Tim Hardford way of thinking and telling stories。 Some of the "commandments" were a bit too complex and somewhat artificial， but overall I think the book was full of interesting perspectives。 Worth reading！ 。。。more
David Kemple
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Really good read， enjoyed the historical examples
Steve Gillway
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In these times a useful guide to understanding all the stats that reverberate around and this provides som simple key things to bear in mind when confronted with data。
Jamie Emerson
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As with all of the Tim Harford books I’ve read I found this to be a thoroughly enjoyable， breezy read。 My enjoyment was tempered a bit by previous exposure to a few of the ideas presented in other forms such as Harford’s podcasts， but it’s telling that I never wanted to skip anything despite knowing where things were heading。 One note of warning has to be that the book is very， very light on numbers and is not， as the subtitle might suggest， going to shed much light on statistics。 Still， well wo As with all of the Tim Harford books I’ve read I found this to be a thoroughly enjoyable， breezy read。 My enjoyment was tempered a bit by previous exposure to a few of the ideas presented in other forms such as Harford’s podcasts， but it’s telling that I never wanted to skip anything despite knowing where things were heading。 One note of warning has to be that the book is very， very light on numbers and is not， as the subtitle might suggest， going to shed much light on statistics。 Still， well worth a read。 。。。more
Arne
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References all known thinkers and offers some nice storries。Thinking about how a number or stat makes you feel is a good rule。Will read more from him， but preferably on topics I know less about to benefit more from his covering of existing literature。
Omri Har-shemesh
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A great book that gives me hope that anyone can understand the world and that not all is lost。Just ask the mean question: please elaborate ;）
Loudon McAndrew
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Fascinating insight into the world of figures and how to interpret them。
Bob George
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A book about statistics and set out with 10 guidelines for getting more accurate statistical evidence。 They all fit under the general heading of using and maintaining curiosity。 Look to see what is there and what's been ommited; what's the basic premise， dont be mislead by graphic representations， stay open minded and so on。 Each chapter peppered with interesting stories to illustrate the points。It's difficult to write any review saying any more than that。 It does what it says on the tin， so to A book about statistics and set out with 10 guidelines for getting more accurate statistical evidence。 They all fit under the general heading of using and maintaining curiosity。 Look to see what is there and what's been ommited; what's the basic premise， dont be mislead by graphic representations， stay open minded and so on。 Each chapter peppered with interesting stories to illustrate the points。It's difficult to write any review saying any more than that。 It does what it says on the tin， so to speak。 The stories about Florence Nightingale made me want to know more about her and her life。 And about her statistical mentor William Farr。As ever there is a dangling thread of unresolved puzzlement。 There is a story about an experiment in which people offered a small range of jams to chose from - just 3 - spent more on jam than those offered a range of 24 jams。 As Harford says "Does anyone believe that？" In reality stores stock large ranges of food products and do well from that。 Harford uses this to show how experiements need to be repeated， and that with multiple experiments the result disappeared。 He later morphed the original experiment to imply that choice demotivates。I would have assumed that it is much more complicated than the way this is presented by Tim Harford。 This is to do with choice and decision making; though of course the example is there to illustrate statistic bias。 Hobson's Choice - the forced choice of Take it or Leave it （ coming from Thomas Hobson - if you want to rent a horse you can have this one， or not take a horse） is invariably effective getting people to take something。 So a Choice of 1 is effective。 A choice from 3 things （the jam experiment） is also likely to be quite effective you'd expect， you want jam， you'll buy some， which of these three？ 24 jams - well goodness， which to have？ Shall I wait till later？ My natural inclination is to expect that limited choice - of a meal， of a product， of a service - is likely to have a bigger uptake than when you're confronted with a large range of choices。 Decision making for a lot of people is quite difficult; and it's a complicated procedure with many elements。 So I am just not sure that the debunking of this original story of jam choosing is right; though I accept that the statistical point it is making has merit。So， that's great - the book gets me thinking 。。。more
Cedric
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Lively， well documented and with some good points。
Philip Talmage
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I read this entertaining and thought-provoking book after a working life as a sort-of statistician （actually， as a survey researcher and marketing planner）。 So it was easy to read， while nodding agreement – except when it got me thinking about some of those rules， several illustrated with stories having nothing directly to do with statistics。Some things you might not have considered: the very many ways in which honest statistics can be misinterpreted; what counts as news depends on the frequency I read this entertaining and thought-provoking book after a working life as a sort-of statistician （actually， as a survey researcher and marketing planner）。 So it was easy to read， while nodding agreement – except when it got me thinking about some of those rules， several illustrated with stories having nothing directly to do with statistics。Some things you might not have considered: the very many ways in which honest statistics can be misinterpreted; what counts as news depends on the frequency of bulletins as well as how interesting it seems; how the absence of reliable statistics can license the powers-that-be to govern as they please; how sample studies can be made to lie， undetectably; how helpful it can be to compare your own experiences with statistical reports。Harford mentions two techniques that have been facilitated by computing power and the internet: meta-analysis and big data， together with algorithms， the inner workings of which may be inaccessible to the analyst。We may hope that he will in due course address his analytical powers to seeing what we can learn about the coronavirus pandemic， that will help the world to cope more effectively when again it faces anything of the kind。 。。。more
Pedro Martinez
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Well-intended and educational essay for not taking pieces of information from granted， specially when support our own prejudices。
P
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I wish this existed in all the languages there are， with slight adaptations to talk about respective localized cases instead of the heavy focus on the US and UK， so that I could gift this to all my friends and family everywhere。5 stars！ Such a great introduction， such a careful guidance
Chris Wood
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Like the “more or less” radio show and podcast， the book interweaves interesting human stories with discovery and insight on important issues。 Very accessible。 Tim Harford has a very distinctive approach and an engaging voice。
R。A。 Forde
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Did you know that Florence Nightingale， revered as the founder of modern nursing， was actually an expert statistician？ From the age of nine she pestered her parents to get her a proper education in maths – not always easy for girls in those days。 She collected statistics on the processes she could observe in her parents’ garden。 At the military hospital in Scutari she started by collecting statistics about sickness and deaths among the soldiers。 When she cleaned the place up it was not for reaso Did you know that Florence Nightingale， revered as the founder of modern nursing， was actually an expert statistician？ From the age of nine she pestered her parents to get her a proper education in maths – not always easy for girls in those days。 She collected statistics on the processes she could observe in her parents’ garden。 At the military hospital in Scutari she started by collecting statistics about sickness and deaths among the soldiers。 When she cleaned the place up it was not for reasons of infection （the microbial theory of infection was still in its infancy） but just to make it pleasanter。 However， her statistics quickly showed that these simple hygiene measures had cut the death rate from 50% to 20%。 The rest， as they say， is history。 She went on to become the first woman to be created a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society。This is the sort of story with which Tim Harford illustrates the points that he makes in this book about statistics for non-statisticians。 There are many of them， and they serve to give a human face， and human relevance， to the statistical points。 In fact， there is really no mathematics in this book， and it is easy to read。 Harford is， of course， well-known as the presenter of Radio 4’s “More or Less”， which regularly shows us how to make sense of statistical information， so one might have expected this。One of Harford’s reasons for writing the book was to help people make sense of the data （and fake data） with which we are daily bombarded。 Many commentators tell us that this is the age of “post-truth” and “fake news”; can we trust anything at all？ Harford goes a long way to show that we can， but only if we question it systematically to see where it comes from and whose interests it serves。 And we must also question ourselves: research shows that most of us are happy to accept poor evidence if it confirms our prejudices， but will greatly resist good evidence if it does not。 Having mentioned research， it’s worth pointing out that Harford’s positions on various issues are supported by research， and there is an extensive bibliography for those who wish to examine the topics further。 Much of this research has been conducted by psychologists interested in decision-making and information-processing。 Harford himself is an economist by training， so not surprisingly economists figure quite largely as well。The book has eleven chapters。 Each of the first ten has a simple rule for a title， which he then goes on to explain in detail。 But the eleventh may be the most important of all。 Its title is “The Golden Rule: be curious”。 This， in a nutshell， is Harford’s argument。 We need to be curious about things: we should ask what the numbers we are offered actually represent， and we should seek to understand the processes – and possible biases – behind them if we are to better understand the world in which we live。 A simple example: during the war the RAF studied fighter planes returning from dogfights， and found a lack of bullet holes near the fuel tank and the pilot’s cockpit。 It seemed that enemy fighters were deliberately avoiding these areas。 However， the statistician who considered this pointed out that if the fuel tank or the pilot’s cockpit had been hit， those planes would probably not have returned。 A grim example of biased sampling。This book would be a great help to anyone who would like to understand more about the way that information is presented to us。 Those who do not have a statistical training should not be deterred， as the reader does not need one。 But those who consider themselves statistically sophisticated would probably benefit as well: many of the illustrative stories show how eminent statisticians were taken in by some simple errors。 Above all， Harford shows how crucial good statistics are to understanding how the world works。 Highly recommended。 。。。more
Gina
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I found this really useful and interesting。 Lots of tips （and stories to back them up/make it book length） about what to consider and question when you read a piece of information， claim， statistic， etc。
Alex Bird
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Interesting and thought provoking。 Tim Harford encourages us to be curious about statistics and the world around us， and provides an easy framework for readers to do so。
William Sherlock
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